Latin America’s Party Landscape Shifts to the Right

00:00:03: International Reports,

00:00:05: around the world with The Conrad Adonale Foundation.

00:00:12: Hello and welcome to another edition of international reports.

00:00:15: I'm Eric O'Lander joining you today from the campus of Harvard University in Cambridge Massachusetts.

00:00:20: In the April edition of The International Reports magazine, we explore the rise of conservative and right-wing parties around the world.

00:00:28: Nowhere is that trend more evident than in Latin America where the so called pink tide that brought leftist to power in the twenty tens has now given way to a conservative right wing wave that swept across Argentina El Salvador Chile Bolivia And Honduras.

00:00:47: Nine democracies in Latin America have changed political course from left to right over the past four years.

00:00:53: While this phenomenon may sound familiar as Leftist revolutionaries and Right-wing populace movements have battled for decades, it's important note that this time is different.

00:01:07: Many of young people who voted these conservatives into power aren't interested in ideology.

00:01:14: This new generation, many voting for the first time are restless and making the same kind of demands that Gen Z protesters in Indonesia Kenya Nepal And other places where they took to the streets To protest corruption and ineffective government.

00:01:29: The bottom line is That these young people want a better economy Better infrastructure and better opportunities.

00:01:36: Henning Zur wrote about this for the April edition of international reports.

00:01:40: Henning leads The Conrad Adenauer Foundation's program on party dialogue and democracy in Latin America, he joins us today from his office in Montevideo in Uruguay.

00:01:50: Also we're thrilled to have on the show with us Olaf Jakob who heads the Conrad-Adenauer foundation office In Chile where a lot of these issues are playing out.

00:01:59: Henning Olaf welcome to International Reports.

00:02:03: Thanks For The Invitation.

00:02:04: Thank

00:02:04: You Eric.

00:02:05: Wonderful to have both of you here and this is a very timely topic in one that has very poorly understood by the outside world as two what he's happening across latin america.

00:02:14: hanging your out.

00:02:15: In the article that conservatives right wing leaders come to dominate latin american political leadership since twenty twenty five just since last year, and the seizure of former venezuelan president nicholas modulo buy united states back in january mark the end of dominance, of left-leaning governments in Latin America.

00:02:35: Maybe let's start our conversation here by helping us understand what is behind this shift that we've seen since twenty-twenty

00:02:45: five?

00:02:45: Well as you said Eric In Latin America it was dominated by Left Wing Governments during last decades and this has somehow came to an end by now.

00:02:58: Many people remember Hugo Chavez in Venezuela who was then succeeded by Nicolas Maduro, the Kirchners in Argentina who dominated their Miss Bachelet and Borridge.

00:03:09: in Chile Lula for instance is still governing but In The Last Pole the son of Bolsonaro overtook him.

00:03:17: so we might even see a change in government in Brazil this year at the election again And This Is Very Much Something Which Happens All across the region, Latin American governing systems are presidential so that is kind of normal.

00:03:31: That we see a pendulum swinging from left to right once in awhile and there's some wave more to the left then after decade more on the right.

00:03:41: but what is interesting now?

00:03:43: it these new right wing waves characterized by different political leaders.

00:03:51: So its not traditional center-right necessarily who is benefitting from the people being fed up with left-wing governments.

00:03:58: They are new actors, they're new populist actors.

00:04:02: there are new candidates from right wing political parties who then also win in their elections and they aren't all the same.

00:04:10: In Argentina for instance where we see Millay Who is definitely a populist I mean...who goes around with chainsaw And in campaign telling who wants to cut down government and to zero.

00:04:23: That is obviously a populist approach, but he's not a nationalist like many other right-wing politicians for instance Bolsonaro in Brazil definitely as a nationalists or Bukele in El Salvador who was also very well known over the borders across the region For his law on order stands towards crime But he himself proclaimed to be a dictator.

00:04:47: another right wing presidents afar from declaring themselves a dictator, obviously.

00:05:02: Some of those labels don't really apply to the current moment because there's also something called The Radical Center, especially in places like Chile.

00:05:10: and what some things that we've seen this year.

00:05:12: And the Peruvian campaign.

00:05:13: so tell us a little bit more about how they?

00:05:16: The labels have changed a little but me identities have change.

00:05:19: That right wing today does not mean the same as Right Wing did twenty years ago.

00:05:24: That's absolutely right.

00:05:26: We half here in Chile are very traditional right position at.

00:05:29: the president cast is no newcomer.

00:05:33: He has been politician for a long, long time and he's being having all-time very clear right wing policy proposals in social aspects are very ultra conservative positions but on the other hand as you said they're here For example Here In Chile Very news streams in politics which quite new and special.

00:05:58: The third most voted Party here in Chile is the so-called Partido de la Gente, a party which it's a populist party but always says that It represents The center of the policy.

00:06:10: So this quite strange.

00:06:12: You have A party That always tries to express and say price of diapers for babies and old people.

00:06:32: That was one their main issues, or on the other hand they were saying to build a very big fence much bigger than the fence between the United States and Mexico in the border between Bolivia and Chile which is technically impossible because you have mountains over seven thousand meters.

00:06:53: This is a quite new phenomenon here in Chile, to have a party which has twenty percent of the votes.

00:06:59: Which is always saying we are at the center but it has very clear populist position.

00:07:07: Olaf, let me just ask you.

00:07:08: What is forcing these politicians into the center?

00:07:12: In the old days again it would be ideologies or maybe great power politics but we talked about at the beginning of this show The Power Of Young People in This Vote.

00:07:20: are they the ones demanding that these populist politicians Be more pragmatic?

00:07:25: what Is the reason That the Center is so popular in Chile?

00:07:28: well in all polls You will find of the last, I would say fifteen years.

00:07:35: There are this so-called Bicentenario polls which are regularly done with same questions.

00:07:39: you will see that the political center is main option for most of the Chileans when it comes to election day.

00:07:49: many Chilean vote another way but i think that most people who voted for Partido de la Gente for this populist center party.

00:07:59: young people who are expecting a new kind of policy, but and this is interesting.

00:08:05: We have just four weeks from the beginning of the actual government.

00:08:10: now This partido la gente has that great crisis And it's having a great fight!

00:08:16: I think Young People are not realizing It and they're saying wait what?

00:08:22: They're more or less exactly The same even worse than the traditional politics.

00:08:27: Actually, Poles do not really recognize this vote because only one to two percent of people asked by polling institutions actually take part in the poll so they are just having a very small political spectrum.

00:08:46: And that polling difficulty is something now a universal problem in many countries around the world, including United States and Europe.

00:08:54: A lot of people don't answer polls on their cell phones because they do not recognize phone numbers so it's very hard to get through.

00:09:01: Henning Olaf has described this situation in Chile.

00:09:04: how much you hear what happens here?

00:09:11: There are many similarities all across the region when it comes to young vote and first of all that there is a high volatility.

00:09:20: The voting pattern does not necessarily follow regarding cleavages like social class or whatsoever, especially right-wing populist candidates learned from past and they're now having seen more social approach in some cases.

00:09:38: but obviously social media plays also a huge role.

00:09:42: And by the way, this is not only true for young voters that it's true to all of them because what we can see during last elections from two or three years was always candidates successful who let their best social media campaign.

00:09:59: so winning without good social media campaigns in Latin America is basically impossible and penetration with social media or with politics in social media is very high.

00:10:12: If I may give you one example, the last elections in Ecuador last year.

00:10:18: there was two main candidates Nobor he's a conservative market-friendly right wing candidate and He was the incumbent and from their opposition, a left-wing lady called Laura Fernandez.

00:10:30: She's close to Raphael Correa And you could not even scroll in Facebook or Instagram Or open YouTube.

00:10:40: You couldn't see a Youtube video without seeing of one of two candidates any kind of campaign videos during last six weeks.

00:10:49: So there is tremendous penetration on social media.

00:10:53: It has its effect

00:10:55: Yeah, so when we talk about the leaders like naib de bukele in El Salvador who says he's again proudly declares that is a dictator and have your Malay.

00:11:06: Who really very much aligned with Donald Trump's maga movement?

00:11:10: In many cases That's very evident their alliance with Donald trump.

00:11:14: but how much of these movements that were seeing what Olaf was talking about the radical center if you will in places like Chile are aligned with Trump and connected to MAGA in the United States, and the rise of populism.

00:11:26: And how much of this is organic and indigenous to the region?

00:11:30: Henning I'd like you get your take on that.

00:11:32: then Olaf.

00:11:33: some reflections from you after.

00:11:34: so Some of those leaders especially The two you mentioned have in common.

00:11:38: where there were Donald Trump's mega movement Is their rhetoric approach.

00:11:43: they targeted breaking off taboos.

00:11:46: now You say something just to provocate.

00:11:49: In this case for instance Bukeli, he said.

00:11:52: Well if they call me dictator I'm the coolest dictator and we do not have to mention all the examples of Javier Mele.

00:12:00: So that comes along with a political communication to go the extreme, be heard and dominate the discourse.

00:12:09: In addition what happened since the second term of Donald Trump is that the United States government dedicated itself more to Latin America And you can see this unfolding during last fifteen months.

00:12:24: At end of last year The US published national security strategy giving priority to Latin America.

00:12:31: And you can see that.

00:12:33: so on the one hand it's they're helping or supporting candidates and governments who have similar ideological approach but in the end, It is all about interest.

00:12:45: So also there are some governments Who could be labeled as social democratic like in Guatemala for instance Or also Trinidad and Tobago But their clearly in line with United States because States is dominating a lot.

00:13:00: When it comes to politics, there were some cases where the United States even intervened in campaign.

00:13:06: one was the parliamentary elections in Argentina Where Trump publicly stated that if the Argentinians do not vote and favor of Milay then he's going give very important credit.

00:13:19: And the same happened in Honduras, where Donald Trump said that the Honduran people should vote for Mr.

00:13:25: Asfura.".

00:13:26: So this is kind of an intervention or intermission into domestic affairs which we didn't see over decades by the United States and Latin America.

00:13:37: And Olaf how was playing out in Chile?

00:13:39: What's the trump effect on change in Chile?

00:13:43: Well,

00:13:43: first of all immediately after being elected president and before taking the office in that period of time, Jose Antonio Cast made a trip to Europe.

00:13:53: He met with Abascal from Vox and afterwards with Victor Orban.

00:13:58: These were two meetings he had in Europe.

00:14:01: Afterwards they have very short meeting also with Giorgio Miloni The Italian Prime Minister During the campaign in Hungary Being President of Chile He recorded a video supporting Viktor Orban, which was presented in a CPAC Congress in Hungary.

00:14:19: So there's clear alignment or desire!

00:14:23: of alignment with those far-right politicians on one hand.

00:14:29: On the other hand, Chile's foreign policy is a state policy.

00:14:33: so as president you have some ways to influence foreign policies but it´s not the same in most countries in the region.

00:14:41: The foreign policy in Chile is a State policy.

00:14:44: So if your in a kind of corset he cannot move too much.

00:14:48: and highest priority for Chile is to have good relations with the whole world.

00:14:54: so they are very pragmatic in that sense.

00:14:56: That means there's a tie, special ties between the United States and especially also a special type of Trump.

00:15:05: but Chile will not leave their traditional commercial relations with China because kind of the spirit of the Chilean foreign policy and especially of Chilean commercial foreign policies.

00:15:23: Olaf, I'm very glad that you brought up the question of China as Henning mentioned.

00:15:28: The United States in its national security strategy placed a lot more emphasis on Western hemispheric interests.

00:15:35: A lot of that has undertones are pushing back against the Chinese.

00:15:39: one Of the things that we've seen across the region In Panama and Columbia in Peru And in Chile is resistance from the united states an opposition to chinese engagement.

00:15:49: Henning talked us about how these countries in this new era of politics is managing the great power rivalry now that this region is at the center once again in a major power competition.

00:16:01: Exactly, these are developments which unfolded actually already during the last years but they haven't been so visible like in the last year since the United States.

00:16:13: somehow let me say there was kind-of awakening call to see.

00:16:18: The trade relations nowadays from Latin American countries are very much tied to China.

00:16:27: China is of most latin-american countries the biggest trade partner and so it's also about business.

00:16:34: because the United States losing ground in Latin America, they want to have back for two reasons one making a business but second becuase in the eyes of Washington.

00:16:46: there're security interests touched US security interest.

00:16:51: So the US is very, very sensitive when it comes for instance to the installation of a five G networks by Chinese companies in Latin America and all other security relevant infrastructure or when it come too big infrastructure projects like the huge harbour which the Chinese built in Peru also train lines tracks railway tracks in Brazil another countries.

00:17:19: so They see that somehow they are losing ground in their own backyard, and they're trying to get it back.

00:17:25: Yeah but Henning you said getting it back means going back to the nineteen fifties when The United States was an industrial economy And a lot of the resources In Latin America fed That Industrial Economy.

00:17:36: US Today is A Tech & Services & Finance Economy.

00:17:39: There's Very Little Complementarity Between What South America Sells?

00:17:47: corn and beef, and soybeans to the United States.

00:17:50: They do that themselves but there is a lot of complementarity between South America, Central America ,and China now the world's largest industrial economy.

00:17:59: so I'm just wondering they may want it back...they may want the Chinese out-of-the-five G network..but the fact is The United States doesn't have its own five g alternative.

00:18:07: So when you look at these countries Mr.

00:18:10: America, what do you want us to do?

00:18:13: You have no five G alternative and we can't sell our products to you because you don't need What We Sell.

00:18:18: China does.

00:18:20: I mean it just doesn't make any sense.

00:18:22: Yes somehow It Does Not Make Any Sense.

00:18:24: Or Somehow Is A Very Old-Fashion Approach Like a Cold War Approach.

00:18:29: But i also think its very important not necessarily To Decide To want all those resources or to rebuild old commercial relations which are from the past, I think that is not necessarily... The main focus here.

00:18:46: So what's more important of getting it?

00:18:50: Who does NOT get

00:18:51: it?!

00:18:52: clearly could see that also the interest of their US intervention in Venezuela.

00:18:57: So it was very important for the U S to take.

00:19:00: they do not need oil from Venezuela by the way, It's a very heavy oil.

00:19:05: Its expensive to refine but its important have control over this Oil and same is true for the oil extraction in Guyana For instance.

00:19:14: And its the same as when comes to defend security interests in Southern Atlantic.

00:19:20: I think Soon, we will see here in Montevideo a visit from the airship carrier.

00:19:26: They make a joint maneuver with Argentinians and this is obviously also demonstration of power.

00:19:33: so it's more important to get resources that can control these resources.

00:19:38: Actually Eric I absolutely agree with Henning at that point because there are very interesting examples in Peru now as Henning said The Chinese built port, Chiang Kai which is controlled by Costco.

00:19:51: But now two or three days ago the United States announced that they will build another kind of common Peruvian American North-American Port north of Chiang Kai some miles from a Chiang kai And the Americans are now having a project of building and new space center in North Peru, in Talara which will be built probably by NASA.

00:20:20: The United States is going to sell F-Sixteen fighters for Peru next week.

00:20:26: so I absolutely agree with Henning that it's also a question showing power and avoiding China getting more space.

00:20:36: We had here at Chile actually very big crisis some weeks ago because Chile had a contract with China to build an internet cable between China, continental China and Chile directly.

00:20:49: And the former minister who was the leader of this proposal he got his US visa void cancelled due.

00:21:08: see this cable between China and Chile.

00:21:12: So, now it is stopped!

00:21:13: And nobody knows what will happen with this very important cable that connects Chile with Chile's main commercial partner, China?

00:21:22: Yeah well we have to also note that China is an actor in all of these... In the month of March ninety Panamanian vessels were detained in China and apparently have had very difficult times entering the Chinese market.

00:21:36: And one of things that we're all trying to speculate is this possibly a retribution for Panama expelling Hong Kong company CK Hutchinson from two ports on either end of the Panama Canal, The chinese are also talking now about serious tariffs on Argentinian products so they could make it painful.

00:21:59: And remember that a lot of what South America sells... to China can be purchased elsewhere around the world.

00:22:05: There's very little that unique and maybe The Lithium is one thing they need more than anything, so something to watch.

00:22:11: it looks like the region will caught in middle of this.

00:22:14: Let us wrap up our discussion again looking forward.

00:22:18: Do you see as a temporary shift or is there going to be decades long transition in the regions politics towards right or radical center?

00:22:29: Give us your final thoughts Henning.

00:22:31: Actually, I think it's a development which is here to stay in the sense of... The same happening.

00:22:39: what we can see throughout other democracies in the world, Europe and Northern America wherever.

00:22:47: That is that there's a swing to right.

00:22:50: This is unfolding different ways... ...and actually it even more marked by polarization and populism.

00:22:58: Somehow the center-right parties who do not want go into extreme political communication with their policy positions.

00:23:07: They have to find new ways how to deal with this.

00:23:11: And they have to finding a way of being attractive again for the voters, because one thing is clear that any kind movement in the extreme isn't very healthy for democracy.

00:23:23: So we need to do lots work here together with Latin Americans and set up political center so they can win elections again and convince them that democratic values are the ones who worth fighting for.

00:23:38: OK, Olaf we're going to give you the last word on this.

00:23:40: what should be think about in the future?

00:23:42: Well Chile is a country where people vote probably right or left candidate but at the end The Left Candidate will shift to the center and Right Candidates will also change to the centre.

00:23:55: Bachelet was a Social Democrat more-or less.

00:23:59: Piñera in his first term was also Christian Democrat Again, a Social Democrat.

00:24:06: Piñera again Christian Democrat.

00:24:08: Boric was elected president as one who wanted to make a new foundation of the Republic of Chile and became at the end... ...a Social Democrat!

00:24:18: And Kast is probably shifting also from his very conservative social-conservative position into more let's say center position.

00:24:28: so in Chile I think this shift goes Quite always to the right and it is all with a pendulum movement that goes from one side to

00:24:38: be other.

00:24:58: Jakob from Santiago, Chile.

00:25:00: Thank you gentlemen for both being with us today.

00:25:02: we really appreciate your insights.

00:25:03: thanks a lot.

00:25:04: thank You very much Eric

00:25:06: and that'll do it for this edition of international reports.

00:25:09: on behalf Of everybody at Conrad Adenauer Foundation around the world want to thank you For listening And for watching will be back again next month With another episode of International Reports.