Backing with Side Effects: Israel’s View of Trump 2.0

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00:00:12: Hello and welcome to another edition of International Reports.

00:00:16: I'm Eric Olander.

00:00:17: By any measure, one the most important geopolitical relationships.

00:00:25: For decades, the U.S has been Israel's indispensable partner providing nearly forty billion dollars of financial assistance since twenty sixteen and another twenty two billion in supplemental wartime military aid to support Israel's war against Hamas.

00:00:39: in response And even as Israel's relationship with most of the rest of world has frayed in response to war on Gaza, The US remains steadfast by keeping money flowing and defending Jewish state at United Nations.

00:00:57: When Donald Trump returned to White House last year there was a lot excitement that the U.S.

00:01:02: President would reinvigorate.

00:01:05: it had started to show strain under Democratic Presidents Barack Obama But it hasn't been easy for the Israelis since Trump came back into office.

00:01:15: Trump is a complicated character, even for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who clearly prefers dealing with Republicans rather than Democrats.

00:01:24: Today we're going to explore the complexities of this relationship that were detailed in A Fascinating Story In The Print Edition Of International Reports by Michael Rimmel head of Conrad Adenauer Foundation's Office in Israel and also joined by Thomas Volk director of the Middle East and North Africa Department at The Conrad Adenauer Foundation who joins us today from Berlin.

00:01:46: Michael Thomas, welcome to International Reports!

00:01:49: Hi

00:01:49: thank you

00:01:50: it's great to have both here.

00:01:52: Michael let start with you on this very timely topic...the title your article is Israel's view of Trump.

00:01:59: two point oh where you highlight what appear be some very subtle cracks in foundation relationship.

00:02:05: On the one hand, you write that U.S military support as I detailed has expanded.

00:02:10: but politically and diplomatically Trump's unpredictable style is lefty.

00:02:16: Israeli sometimes on the sidelines help us understand these two dynamics in how they kind of coexist with what another.

00:02:24: Yeah, they live with each other pretty well because for Israelis it's better than it was.

00:02:29: The former administration from President Biden went way farther applying pressure on Israeli politics.

00:02:36: You don't see it in the current administration from Trump.

00:02:40: There's a lot of talks, Netanyahu was already many times in U.S for direct talk with President Trump also under four eyes.

00:02:49: Trump is here in this region.

00:02:51: so there are very close relationship between Netanyah and Trump And between the administration of Trump and Israeli government.

00:02:58: So there actually better development than it was, but of course there are some illusions that many people have.

00:03:07: That the Trump administration will do everything Israel wants to.

00:03:10: and this is not a case.

00:03:11: We saw it already few times in the past regarding to the Houthis more then one year ago.

00:03:17: Then they started And then ahead.

00:03:20: Americans had their own priorities Their own agenda.

00:03:23: It's not always to do every thing that Israel needs To and we see at moment regarding Iran for himself at the US, speaking again with Trump.

00:03:34: We heard a few statements also from other people that are not sure what Trump is going to do Also in regards of protecting Israel In this case.

00:03:45: or would he go so far only trying To destroy the nuclear capacity Of Iran?

00:03:51: Or we did go also So far and trying to topple The regime or handling the ballistic missiles off Iran?

00:03:58: This Is something That Israelis Would like too.

00:03:59: There's Something are always talked about.

00:04:02: And we're not sure if the US will go all this way, but still it's a very close relationship just not closed as maybe some people would like to be or think has been.

00:04:13: We'll dive into Iran aspect of all these later.

00:04:16: Thomas I think a lot could be said for Europe and Germany where there is complex relationships that you know have had fishers shown up in recent years.

00:04:26: what your view from Berlin on those?

00:04:28: Well, obviously the German relations with a new US administration are indeed complex and that's also the terminology.

00:04:36: That was used recently in Germany.

00:04:39: but looking at the Middle East of the German government to New Government which is in power since May twenty-twenty five is quite clear and steadfast when it comes to the solidarity, and support for Israel.

00:04:55: We have very close relations obviously with Israel which was repeatedly emphasized also after the terrible massacres of October seventh twenty-twenty three.

00:05:09: And looking at the Middle East today obvious and clear to the German government that this security of Israel must be secured assured.

00:05:22: And that israel's security as a number one priority also for Germany's foreign policy in the Middle East,

00:05:29: okay?

00:05:30: Well let's dive into this Iran question.

00:05:32: at the time of this recording The United States has amassed massive projection force close to Iran.

00:05:38: There's a lot of coordination going on with Israel.

00:05:41: President Trump has made that clear.

00:05:42: at the same time we have to remember back to last summer when U.S and Israel cooperated on their attacks on Iran, what role does Iran play in the US-Israel relationship?

00:05:54: Michael let's get started with you but then I'd also like Thomas DeWayne this as well.

00:05:59: It is more important.

00:06:01: The issue of Iran itself was main issues for every Israeli government since the change of their regime in Iran, and end-of-the-seventies.

00:06:12: And it is a major issue for Netanyahu himself as he was already an UN ambassador to Israel.

00:06:19: He spoke about this subject on Israel.

00:06:23: that's more than thirty years ago.

00:06:25: So there always has been very important discussion every Israeli Prime Minister.

00:06:29: There were no so many besides Netanyah but every prime minister always spoke about his question.

00:06:35: It had always been the biggest fear Israeli security, also not only because of the nuclear capacity they want to build but also the missiles.

00:06:43: The ballistic missile is a different proxies in the region Hezbollah and other Hamas off course another actors that are trying To make a ring-of-fire And destroy Israel.

00:06:55: so it was always important.

00:06:57: It's Always Is A major topic between Israeli an American administration for decades.

00:07:04: That is a main subject.

00:07:05: now Of Course when You are so close, maybe that a regime could topple or it would fall and maybe Israel has the capacity.

00:07:13: to destroy the ballistic capabilities of Iran and also maybe make a change in their regime.

00:07:20: It's something that is, of course an main issue for every Israeli citizen.

00:07:25: you have your vast majority citizens who are for strike against Iran so they can keep this threat away.

00:07:33: This may be the most important subject.

00:07:38: already for weeks months years now we're on climate.

00:07:43: Yeah, but Thomas this is where the Europeans may differ quite a bit on that because after the collapse of the nuclear talks.

00:07:51: The JCPOA Europe sought to keep the talks going even after the US pulled out.

00:07:57: Europe in the U?

00:07:58: S and Israel May not be fully aligned on This.

00:08:00: Is That Correct?

00:08:01: Well, first of all I think we have to re-emphasize that the current Iranian regime is a mostly stabilizing actor in the Middle East.

00:08:10: Many of the problems we see in the middle east are connected with the destabilizing role the Ayatollah regime actually has.

00:08:19: And now, at the same time we see that deep proxy system which was established in last decades is shaken and weakened.

00:08:29: The Houthis are weakened.

00:08:31: obviously Hisbollah is extremely weakened in Lebanon not to speak of Syria where after the toppling of Assad regime also one of most important partners for Iranian regime has gone and after the so-called twelve day war, And After The Military Clashes Between Israel & Iran We See Also That The Iranian Regime Now Is As Weak as It Hasn't Been In Decades.

00:08:59: So There is now A Momentum To Really Look Deeper Into What's Going On in Iran... ...And After The Protests That Started In December, Twenty-Twenty Five we Clearly See Not Only That The Population in Iran is fed up with this system.

00:09:17: They do not want the Ayatollah regime to further govern the Iranian population and, furthermore we see that the Iranian regime is extremely brutal against its own population And there also the German government was very clear from the beginning This has to stop!

00:09:41: It's not acceptable that a regime is killing its own population.

00:09:45: Speaking about the JCPOA just for one minute, looking back I think one has to state that many European leaders were quite naive about what's going on in Iran in the last decades and the promises that the Iranian leadership already did in the past was mainly prolonging situations where the Iranian regime could work on coming up with nuclear capacities, which would be a catastrophe not only for Israel but the whole Middle East and even Europe.

00:10:19: thinking to end.

00:10:20: So therefore JCPOA was maybe naive approach in future.

00:10:25: nowadays I think everyone is clear that it's hard believe that with this regime, any further cooperation could be thinkable in the region given the fact... ...that the own Iranian population has no trust in this regime anymore and does not want to live further with such a repressive brutal regime.

00:10:52: Michael, everything that Thomas has detailed is well-documented but there's always a risk as we saw in Afghanistan and to some extent even Iraq.

00:11:00: That you know external regime change doesn't always lead the kind of benevolent reforms I think others on outside may intend or aspire.

00:11:09: What's concern for Israel do you think?

00:11:12: Toppling current government through massive military force by United States could lead potentially worse outcomes?

00:11:20: Yeah, so of course there are different aspects and what can be done in Iran to change the current situation.

00:11:28: For Israelis or for Israeli government?

00:11:30: their worst-case scenario is already there.

00:11:33: So the Ayatollah regime is a worse case scenario And an Ayatolla regime with nuclear capabilities Is even more worse than this situation.

00:11:44: In order to protect Israel To protect the region The Ayatollah regime, with nuclear capabilities or those capabilities that they have is not acceptable.

00:11:54: And it's something Israelis are having no problem taking this risk.

00:11:57: maybe there was a little bit too far but we'll be able to go at distance because That could be for Israel, the whole region and of course other players.

00:12:07: So this will be something that we've seen... This is something that Israel may have been going to but of course in a twelve days war We see it also now It's not something you can just do.

00:12:18: Of course bombing Iran from the air would not topple their regime.

00:12:21: If they were and if there was possibility the Trump administration would have done it maybe already.

00:12:30: We had a demonstration in January, so we had some opportunities to attack and topple their regime.

00:12:37: That's not something that is very easy to do And this has also something with the current situation.

00:12:41: If there was an key solution for this subject if elements could be done then the regime will fall.

00:12:48: Then what can happen?

00:12:51: It would've been done.

00:12:54: We don't know it, and that's one of the questions.

00:12:56: That is why I think U.S.

00:12:58: administration is trying to apply pressure bringing so many vessels and armed forces in a region... ...and applying as much pressure they can on their Iranian regime in order to make some concessions?

00:13:14: the Iranian regime is looking at a broader picture in very different way, and they want to survive so that it will not let themselves go into disorder.

00:13:25: Maybe they'll be able or sign an agreement about nuclear capabilities but this won't be enough for Israel nor stable their region in coming weeks and months.

00:13:38: Michael just quickly stay with you.

00:13:40: Thomas listed all of the arrivals, many of them Iranian proxies that the Israelis have defeated over the past eighteen months from Hezbollah to Hamas.

00:13:50: To the Syrians and so forth... So in many respects Israel is a stronger security position than it has been decades.

00:13:57: where may its foes immediate vicinity had been neutralized but at same time as I mentioned my opening.

00:14:05: Israel's lacking lot friends international community more isolated then ever.

00:14:11: How does that play out in Israel, the duality of maybe being more secure at home but isolated abroad?

00:14:20: a way to compromise on the own security, and that's what we see at the moment.

00:14:30: So not doing any compromises if you have a threat?

00:14:33: You go after it!

00:14:34: A lot of time...a lot of years...the Hezbollah threat or the Hamas threat or Iranian threat was just taking into acknowledgement and when time will come something maybe can be as a reaction.

00:14:48: Israelis or every Israeli government that will come in next years, we'll have the same doctrine if you have a threat you have to go attack it.

00:14:56: so this is the current situation that you have.

00:14:57: of course doesn't bring your friends after the seventh of October.

00:15:00: Of course The war here with international friends saw that Israel was too aggressive during its politics mostly through military enough through diplomatic channels.

00:15:13: That is something that's also being discussed in Israel, of course... Something which is the main point when there will be an election this year would have been discussed here as well how Israel should shape its strategy for next years.

00:15:29: But it remains that Israel sees their own security and not let allies dictate the way that they have to secure themselves because if They will and that's their way, but a lot of politician A lot of different experts see it.

00:15:45: If there would The next sevens of October could happen again And this is the situation where we are living in the moment.

00:15:51: I may add something on this Because i think It's very important To stress it.

00:15:55: i mean not having many international friends doesn't Mean That you Are wrong?

00:16:00: I mean it's about the quality Of the friendships You Have and the kind of friends that are standing with you.

00:16:07: And I'm quite astonished.

00:16:09: to be honest, looking now at the international community... ...and seeing when it comes to this terrible humanitarian crisis in Sudan there aren't many states coming up or standing against atrocities being made here.

00:16:26: Looking back on the past in Syria where were all these protests regarding hundreds of thousands of killed in Syria.

00:16:34: And even looking now recently at the developments in Iran, I was quite astonished to see that not many states were speaking up against the Ayatollah regime and kind of having a solidarity with hundreds or thousands of people marching on the streets all over the country.

00:16:53: so i think we must speak about double standards also in the international community.

00:16:59: And I'm afraid that many states, we saw it after October the seventh speak up against Israel and neglecting very complex realities on the ground which basically come back to a point where Israel must have the right to defend itself obviously and fight those who are destabilizing whole regions to the international community and security of the international system.

00:17:31: Well, it's clearly a polarizing issue in Europe and the United States.

00:17:34: And to be fair even in Israel there is not consensus on a lot of these key issues.

00:17:40: So I think we can't present this as some kind of consensus that the rest of the world has divided.

00:17:45: These are polarizing times.

00:17:48: Michael and Thomas.

00:17:49: just want you get your sense looking forward.

00:17:51: We talk about these partnerships with the united states for so long to make sure there's funding and weapons, other things that come from these partners.

00:18:04: Given the polarization that exists in rise of anti-Semitism we're seeing.

00:18:16: Nobody knows what will happen in the future, which allies or countries will stay close to Israel as they are today.

00:18:23: Of course we see that Israel sees the al-Semitic waves and different European countries also on

00:18:30: U.S.,

00:18:31: but there's also strategic alliances.

00:18:33: that is important for other countries when Germany is buying Iron Dome, Eros III systems from Israel to protect themselves.

00:18:43: The president of India week in Israel, making a speech in the parliament.

00:18:49: So there are different allies that Israel is working with to prevail their own allies and different countries they work with.

00:18:57: of course it will be more challenging bi-partisan relationship that Israel had with the Democrats and Republicans.

00:19:08: That's changed, we also see some different voices in the Republicans who are more maybe going into isolation way than going to alliances or also with Israel which is critical of those points.

00:19:24: but even though subjects were already old... We spoke about a subject ten, fifteen years ago looking forward.

00:19:32: Israel is still an important key ally here in the region.

00:19:36: I think and see it this way.

00:19:37: And also the different experts that we are talking with, in a next year they will stay the same.

00:19:43: With challenges you have... ...and with ways.

00:19:47: maybe these alliances work together.

00:19:49: Israel has to expand those alliances.

00:19:53: looking at different countries.

00:19:54: Also here in the region we look at the Abraham Accords and opportunities coming from those relationships.

00:20:02: There are no new methods and new ways to collaborate in the world of today, also through economic ties.

00:20:09: So we see developments that could maybe have difficulties other places but you can open windows into different situations.

00:20:17: This is a way where people look at their future.

00:20:21: That's why I'm not so pessimistic.

00:20:26: security of the region, security for many strategic points also for Europe and United States will stay with help from Israel.

00:20:36: And this is something that further administration would like to engage in.

00:20:42: so it's not as big a change we think should be.

00:20:47: Thomas maybe you can give us two perspectives once about Europe then more specifically on how Germany may look at going forward?

00:20:56: Well, on a European level it's extremely complicated because with the twenty-seven member states and we saw in last years there are different approaches also when it comes to how do deal.

00:21:07: With Israel.

00:21:08: they were for example countries within the european union that where unilaterally recognizing state of Palestine which germany is not recognizing now at the moment becaus must be end over solution is discussed with Israel and both parties must agree on.

00:21:29: When it comes to Germany, as I mentioned at the beginning, clear Israel for us as a partner and friend.

00:21:37: we are standing with Israel And i think that we do have to speak more about the image Israel has in Germany because looking at polls its quite interesting.

00:21:48: Germany had better images of Israel than they did in Germany and there I think a lot has to be done in the future.

00:21:58: We have to speak about the very heterogeneous Israeli society, about the vivid democracy that is present here... ...about the innovation of the innovative power Israel has as these start-up nations around many possibilities for cooperation in the fields of AI.

00:22:18: And obviously it is more important than ever to bring people together, to bring Israelis together with counterparts in the Middle East.

00:22:29: Michael was speaking about the Abraham Accords but also to bring Israeli's together with German and other European actors especially at youths and young actors To make everyone aware that Israel as a democratic state In the middle east is our very natural partner.

00:22:47: The article is Israel's view of Trump.

00:22:54: office in Israel.

00:22:55: And also we were joined there by Thomas Vogt, director of the Middle East and North Africa Department at The Conrad Adenauer Foundation joining us on the line from Berlin to talk about an extremely sensitive polarizing yet very important issue that has multifaceted perspectives on it.

00:23:11: but Michael and Thomas are grateful for your insights today.

00:23:19: We'll be back again very soon with another episode of International Reports.

00:23:23: Until then, on behalf everybody at the Conrad Adenauer Foundation around the world thank you so much for listening and watching.