Asia’s relations with the United States under Trump 2.0

00:00:03: International reports around the world with the Conrad Adonale

00:00:07: Foundation.

00:00:12: Hello and welcome to another episode of International Reports.

00:00:16: I'm Eric Olander.

00:00:17: January marks the one year anniversary of US President Donald Trump's return to power.

00:00:22: And as everybody knows, the world has changed profoundly since he moved back into the White House.

00:00:28: The international system today has been completely upended.

00:00:32: Countries that were once unshakable allies of the United States are now rivals.

00:00:37: States that were enemies are treated with care.

00:00:40: The US was once the beacon of democracy, free trade, and the guardian of the rules-based international order, none of which is the case today.

00:00:49: With so much change, countries around the world are scrambling to figure out their place in a new international system that is no longer anchored by the world's most powerful country.

00:00:59: But it's not easy.

00:01:01: especially for middle powers in developing countries that are much more vulnerable to these kinds of geopolitical shocks.

00:01:07: Now, though, we're starting to see the emergence of what many are calling the new post-American order, as countries around the world are rapidly recalibrating their ties with the US and their place in the international system.

00:01:21: Today, we're going to focus on how this is all playing out in Asia.

00:01:25: which is, in many cases, the front line in the escalating US-China great power rivalry.

00:01:31: To help us learn more about what's going on, I'm joined by Christian Ekle, who leads the Asia and Pacific Department at the Conrad Adenauer Foundation and joins us from Berlin.

00:01:41: And Lava Paul, who heads up the Conrad Adenauer Foundation's office in Vietnam, thank you both for joining me today on International Reports.

00:01:51: Hi, Eric.

00:01:52: Good to see

00:01:52: you.

00:01:52: Happy to be here.

00:01:54: Christian, let's start with you.

00:01:55: These are truly unprecedented times.

00:01:58: Every day brings something new that we never thought could be possible, but here we are in this new world.

00:02:04: From your vantage point in Berlin, where you oversee Asia and the Pacific, and you look back on the year that we've had with Donald Trump and where we are today, talk to us about some of your reflections on this past year and what it means for your observations in Asia.

00:02:21: Thank you Eric for this question and indeed it's special to look back just about a year which isn't so much time I would say but to see how the Asian countries started to think about how they should react to Donald Trump's second presidency.

00:02:35: So I remember that we were in India in February and the Indian experts told us Trump loves terrorists.

00:02:42: We love terrorists.

00:02:43: There won't be a problem.

00:02:45: There was very good chemistry between Prime Minister Modi and President Trump.

00:02:49: He was one of the first visitors to the Oval Office after Trump's inauguration.

00:02:54: So there was a fairly... Positive expectation I would say and not only in India but amongst many Asian partners and of course all of them were thinking how they could get closer to Trump how they could strike a deal that would be beneficial to them but would also feel beneficial to Trump.

00:03:13: so that was very much the atmosphere that we.

00:03:16: got during the first few weeks and months of Trump's presidency.

00:03:20: We had an overview, we called it, one hundred days of Trump in Asia.

00:03:24: And I think there was this kind of rather optimistic perspective after the first hundred days.

00:03:31: And then Liberation Day came, the tariffs, then the terrorist attack in Kashmir came and Trump's reaction to that.

00:03:38: And this has changed the Asian perspective on Donald Trump a lot.

00:03:43: I think it's the same as true for the rest of the world.

00:03:46: And everything has become much more complex.

00:03:48: So a rather positive start, rather positive expectations.

00:03:53: And then along the way, during the first year, a lot of realization that Trump is a very tricky person to deal with.

00:04:01: Yeah.

00:04:02: Leva, certainly that was the case in Vietnam, where they imagined early on that they could manage this process.

00:04:09: In fact, Donald Trump's son came to Vietnam and there was a thought that if they provide a golf course and they provide buildings and they flatter the Trump family that that might pave the way.

00:04:20: Talk to us about how the Vietnamese handle it and what your observations are from Hanoi.

00:04:24: First of all, it's important to recall that Vietnam was probably one of the main beneficiaries of the first Trump administration when he waged the trade war as well, but it was mostly directed against China.

00:04:37: And as a consequence, a lot of companies relocated their businesses from China to Vietnam.

00:04:43: And in that period, trade between Vietnam and the US really skyrocketed.

00:04:50: At the same time, the trade deficit with America also increased, for America increased.

00:04:56: And it's important to be called, and Vietnam had quite a positive experience with Trump, one point all.

00:05:03: And so when Trump two point all came into office, I think the mood was also cautiously optimistic.

00:05:09: But then, of course, the tariffs, the so-called Liberation Day, Vietnam was hit with forty-six percent, one of the highest tariffs in Asia, really anywhere for a big economy.

00:05:20: And that was a real shock, I think, for Vietnam.

00:05:23: And they really put all their resources behind the effort of mitigating that damage, which was also successful then in early July.

00:05:33: they managed to reach an agreement to reduce the rate to twenty percent, which was still disappointing for Vietnam, you must say, but at least it avoided a major disaster.

00:05:43: And you mentioned the development projects of the Trump Organization in Vietnam and maybe the most obvious one is the Gulf complex and the Trump Organization wants to build near Hanoi.

00:05:55: That is a very good example of how Vietnam can prioritize decisions, streamline decisions when it sees a political benefit.

00:06:03: So this was very much a situation where... Vietnam accelerated licenses, approvals to get this golf course underway.

00:06:11: And of course, the White House denies that there's any bearing this on the foreign policy of the United States.

00:06:18: But from the perspective of Vietnam at the very least, they said very clearly that this should also be a boost to bilateral ties.

00:06:26: Christian Leiva talks about the shock that Vietnam experienced with the tariffs.

00:06:30: Let's look across the region.

00:06:32: Asia was targeted more than almost any other region in the world by U.S.

00:06:35: tariffs.

00:06:36: Cambodia, I think, was forty-nine percent, fifty percent, thirty-four percent in Indonesia, huge tariffs across the region, and India ultimately ended up with fifty percent at one point higher than what even China was getting.

00:06:50: The impact of these tariffs really felt like it undercut a lot of the trust.

00:06:55: that previous American administrations had built up over the years and beyond just Donald Trump's transactional approach, this trust question and credibility of the United States really came into question.

00:07:06: That's correct.

00:07:07: And it's also important if we compare the first Trump administration and the second Trump administration, that of course also China's role in the region has changed tremendously in the meantime.

00:07:17: So we had the COVID period basically.

00:07:21: And after that, kind of the countries and the region opened up again.

00:07:25: China doubled its efforts to gain influence in the neighborhood.

00:07:29: So this is also a different.

00:07:31: setting for the Trump administration to be active in Asia.

00:07:36: And so this disappointment on Liberation Day, of course, led to the realization that the countries in the region are now in a very difficult position between very demanding and often also fairly aggressive China and a very demanding US administration.

00:07:54: And so this also led to the realization that it is important to diversify partnerships and to look for other.

00:08:01: options.

00:08:01: Yeah,

00:08:02: Leiva, as we look back on the year, picking up on what Christian was saying, the China role is really very interesting.

00:08:09: So last September, if you recall, was the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Beijing, where Putin was there and Modi had the famous picture with Xi Jinping, where they were hugging each other.

00:08:22: And a lot of people interpreted that as a big kind of, you know, rebuff of Donald Trump.

00:08:28: And this is very interesting in the Vietnamese context, because historically the Vietnamese have had a rather tense and fraught relationship with China.

00:08:35: In fact, the Vietnam-China border war of nineteen seventy-nine was the last war that China fought.

00:08:40: But this relationship has changed under General Secretary Tollam.

00:08:44: Tell us a little bit about how the China-Vietnam relationship has evolved in the Trump year, the first year of the Trump administration, picking up on what Christian was talking about, about China's new expansive role in the changing politics in this region.

00:08:57: Well, I would say that of course Vietnam has a very difficult relationship as you mentioned with China and at sometimes very tense when you recall that they had a clash in the South China Sea over an oil rig and other sort of territorial difficulties.

00:09:16: Of course, they have the history of that war and also history that dates back longer into the past.

00:09:23: I would say that the Vietnam and the general secretary told him has a very pragmatic way of engaging with China.

00:09:34: It's very sort of, let's say, very behind closed doors, very strategic, not making a lot of noise.

00:09:42: But I think at the end of the day, the relationship between the two communist parties is quite strong.

00:09:49: And you can see that also, I think in the in the South China Sea that.

00:09:52: There's very little that you hear about Vietnam and China sort of colliding there.

00:09:58: Whereas in the Philippines, we have a completely different picture.

00:10:01: So through very different situations, I think.

00:10:05: now thinking of that particular example.

00:10:08: Yeah, you wrote in a recent article for International Reports that Vietnam has shown remarkable skill in forging pragmatic partnerships and in minimizing the risk of one-sided shocks.

00:10:20: Explain that in terms of how they're balancing the US-China dynamic.

00:10:26: Well, I think Vietnam is very aware that it sits in the middle between these two great powers, and it's really at the intersection of the Indo-Pacific, if you will.

00:10:36: And it fields down also because it is very dependent on China for resources, for precursors to manufacturing also for the businesses that come from China to Vietnam.

00:10:47: At the same time, it's immensely dependent on the US when it comes to exports.

00:10:51: So about thirty percent of Vietnam's GDP is driven by exports to America.

00:10:56: And to decrease dependencies either way, Vietnam has had this bamboo diplomacy approach where it engages with the host of countries around the world where it forges these comprehensive strategic partnerships which is the highest level of diplomatic hierarchy and basically wants to engage on a very pragmatic and goal-oriented manner.

00:11:22: That is also reflected in the trade agreements that Vietnam pursues.

00:11:27: Vietnam was the second nation in Southeast Asia after Singapore to strike a trade deal with the EU and it was also one of the main driving forces behind the comprehensive partnership.

00:11:39: CP TTP.

00:11:41: it is in this vein that Vietnam tries to really keep its economic drive going that it doesn't want to put all its eggs into either basket and then it wants to be resilient against any one sided shock.

00:11:56: that is a very clear assessment.

00:11:58: So Christian the situation in Vietnam where there.

00:12:01: pragmatic and balancing ties is a little bit different than in other countries.

00:12:04: And I want to focus also on Japan because that has been an interesting flashpoint over this past year.

00:12:10: Different governments have come into power in Japan during this first year of the Trump administration.

00:12:15: But the relationship between Japan and China has gotten significantly worse.

00:12:19: And at the same time, there are growing concerns in Tokyo that the United States security guarantees May not be as robust as they hope they are and there are even calls now for Japan to develop nuclear weapons.

00:12:34: talk to us a little bit about this past year in Japan US China relations.

00:12:40: It's really a very relevant case study to look at Japan in a way if you want it.

00:12:46: development there was different than in the rest of Asia.

00:12:50: So there was no optimistic start into this relationship or the tiger to strike a deal.

00:12:55: As you said, the relationship has rather become weaker and weaker from the get go.

00:13:00: And it seems that now with Prime Minister Takaiichi, there is now a new effort to get closer to the US again.

00:13:07: I mean, Trump's visit to Japan happened with a lot of dignitaries and a lot of respect.

00:13:14: You know, so this was clearly.

00:13:16: an effort to get closer to him again.

00:13:19: And at the same time, it is true that with Takahashi's policy approach, there's also... a shift in the Japanese domestic politics, but also in its international politics.

00:13:29: And she has just yesterday announced that there will be elections on February eight.

00:13:34: So she's obviously looking for support with her new style, with her new approach.

00:13:39: Her popularity rating is quite good.

00:13:42: So I think it's a reasonable decision to go for elections.

00:13:46: But of course, Japan, because of that, will also be quite occupied with the domestic political situation and questions like nuclear armament will play a role in this campaign.

00:13:58: Well, Japan is especially vulnerable among Asian powers in part because it's entirely dependent on the United States for security and not only just the physical presence of US troops in Japan, but also US military technology, information, whatnot.

00:14:14: It just couldn't simply replace the United States, even if it wanted to in short notice.

00:14:18: But this current... crisis between China and Japan that set into motion.

00:14:24: A lot of the problems we have today was over this issue of Taiwan.

00:14:28: And Taiwan has become a flash point over this past year as well.

00:14:31: Donald Trump has really been much less committed to protecting Taiwan than Joe Biden was.

00:14:37: Joe Biden was.

00:14:39: was immediately unequivocally saying, yes, we will defend Taiwan in the event of an invasion by China.

00:14:45: Donald Trump went back to the policy of strategic ambiguity.

00:14:49: Let's just shift our focus to Taiwan right now, and especially because during the Trump administration this past year, the Chinese have really stepped up their military engagements around the island.

00:15:00: What do you think from there?

00:15:01: I think this keyword of ambiguity is indeed very important.

00:15:05: If you look at Trump in Asia, you can see that the focus is very much on the economics as we have discussed, you know, liberation day and so on.

00:15:13: Whereas security-wise, there's less certainty in Asia with Trump now being in power in the US.

00:15:21: And I think Taiwan is very vocal about how even more and more aggressive Chinese behavior is, the kind of millions of cyber attacks every day on critical infrastructure.

00:15:33: This is really mind-boggling.

00:15:35: And it is true that there is no very clear commitment from the US side how they would react if there was a conflict escalating around Taiwan.

00:15:45: So it is true that in this area with Trump's presidency, there's more dynamic and less certainty in this area.

00:15:54: Yeah, Leiva, this question of the security guarantees in Japan and even Taiwan is also relevant for the Philippines that's been locked in an ongoing duel with the Chinese over territorial disputes in the South China Sea.

00:16:07: This is an area that you mentioned briefly at the beginning of our discussion.

00:16:10: that's also a flash point for Vietnam.

00:16:13: This question of the role of the United States in maintaining The freedom of navigation in the South China Sea is also now up in question.

00:16:22: What's your vantage point from Hanoi on this issue?

00:16:26: Well, you're completely right to point out that Hanoi is also very concerned about the situation in the South China Sea.

00:16:33: And we, as the Conrad Adnan Foundation in Vietnam, are also the co-organizers of the South China Sea conference that discusses these issues on an annual basis.

00:16:44: In the last year's meeting in November, I think it was very clear that there was a growing concern from the Vietnamese side on the, say, the more aggressive or the more assertive actions of China in the South China Sea, especially when it comes to the use of water cannons, of military-grade lasers and all those things that we've seen in conflict with the Philippines.

00:17:10: But I think Vietnam is still very much, like I said before, They tread more carefully in their communication with China and also with the, let's say, with the outside world.

00:17:23: And they see themselves more in a moderating role of this conflict.

00:17:28: And that is maybe also encapsulated in the South China Sea Conference in Vietnam, that it is a platform for dialogue and exchange where experts, in some cases, policymakers, diplomats meet from... From all literal states and including including china and maybe it's one of the few places where these frank discussions can take place.

00:17:49: so that is i think would how vietnam wants to define its role.

00:17:54: Yeah that forum is very important.

00:17:56: it's one of the few forums available today.

00:17:59: for the different parties to talk to each other about these issues, particularly civil society, military, beyond just the Track One dialogues, those political high-level dialogues.

00:18:08: So kudos for that forum that you do.

00:18:10: Let's close our discussion looking at how all of this in Asia impacts Europe and specifically Germany.

00:18:17: Chancellor Mertz has made his way out to this part of the world quite a bit in this first year.

00:18:21: We also saw that when Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney came out to China, he gave a very important speech.

00:18:28: that was echoed later at his really important speech at Davos in January, where he basically said, we are dealing now not with the world that we want, but the world that we are confronted with.

00:18:40: How does all of what's happened out here in Asia impact Europe's approach to Asia?

00:18:46: And then we'll dive into Germany after.

00:18:49: But Christian, let's start with you.

00:18:50: And then Lava, think about that for a second before we come to you, because I'd like to get your take on this as well.

00:18:55: Just quickly, Eric, on the trips of Chancellor Merz.

00:18:58: So he started to travel to Asia now in in twenty twenty six at the beginning of the year.

00:19:03: India next up is China.

00:19:06: So the focus is now more strongly on the region than it was last year when we still had a lot of domestic issues to discuss.

00:19:13: But from the EU side, it is clear.

00:19:16: I mean, I mentioned that before.

00:19:18: The countries in the region know that they cannot only rely on their relationship with China or their relationship with the US.

00:19:26: And this is a very clear window of opportunity for the European Union.

00:19:30: When I mentioned the atmosphere in India in the first few days after Trump took over, I also remember the visit of the Foreign Minister Chaishankar to Berlin in summer last year.

00:19:41: And he emphasized that there is finally political will on both sides to bring the free trade agreement forward.

00:19:48: And this is what we are expecting now in the coming weeks.

00:19:52: Complex agriculture is an issue which seems to be sidelined now, but these are very clear signs that the European Union is trying to step up from their side in order to strengthen partnerships and potentials on the economic side.

00:20:08: This is the EU's main capacity.

00:20:11: When it comes to the security, we indeed have to look more into the bilateral relations.

00:20:15: And so very quickly, where we are right now, January, twenty twenty six, do you feel that there's opportunity for the European Union and Germany specifically in Asia based on the changes we've seen over the past year or is there more risk?

00:20:31: There definitely are more opportunities, but we also have to step up in order to realize them.

00:20:37: So the perspective on the European Union in the region is still.

00:20:41: Mixed, I would say.

00:20:42: it's very clear that it is seen as a potential relevant partner, not the only one.

00:20:47: I mean, there's the Arab states, there's Turkey, so there's lots of different options really for the partners in the region.

00:20:55: And so the European Union also has to find the right approach in order to really show that stronger partnership, deeper partnership is a sincere demand.

00:21:06: Leva, let's get your take on this again specifically on Vietnam, but even thinking about Southeast Asia more broadly, what are the opportunities and risks for the Europeans and the Germans in specific?

00:21:16: Well, I think in Vietnam, we have a country that is very much interested in upholding the world order as we've known it up until this year.

00:21:25: And it is a country that wants predictability, that wants stability, that is very much.

00:21:31: The economy hinges very much on the global integration.

00:21:35: And as I said before, Vietnam wants to keep its economic momentum.

00:21:41: It has very high ambitions for the coming decades.

00:21:46: And of course, part of that also needs to be in cooperation with Europe.

00:21:51: And I would very much argue that there's a lot of potential for growth.

00:21:56: for the European Union to still increase its partnership with Vietnam and also Germany in particular.

00:22:03: I mean, we have, of course, we have a very solid foundation to build on, but we can still achieve more and maybe the next step can be to agree on a comprehensive strategic partnership like France and the UK have already done with Vietnam.

00:22:18: that would be the first.

00:22:20: step to take diplomatic relations even further and then maybe to explore the potential more from here.

00:22:29: Yeah, and of course, German industry has a rather large presence in Vietnam.

00:22:32: Bosch and Mercedes have factories here and probably more will be coming, notably two daily flights to Frankfurt from Vietnam, more than a lot of other countries that get the Vietnam Airlines' attention.

00:22:43: So I think that's an indication of the strength of this relationship.

00:22:47: Christian, Leiva, thank you so much for your insights today.

00:22:50: Really appreciate it.

00:22:51: What an exciting time to be alive, especially in this business of looking at what's happening here in Asia.

00:22:57: This is by far the most interesting part of the world in my view.

00:23:01: I've lived out here for almost twenty years, so I was absolutely fascinated by your insights.

00:23:05: Thank you so much for your time today.

00:23:07: Thank you, Eric.

00:23:08: Christian Eckler is the head of the Asian Pacific Department at the Conrad Adenauer Foundation in Lava Paul, heads up the Conrad Adenauer Foundation's office in Vietnam.

00:23:19: Thank you for watching and for listening.

00:23:21: We'll be back again next month with another edition of International Reports.

00:23:25: On behalf of everybody at the Conrad Adenauer Foundation around the world, thank you so much for listening and for watching.