Europe Rethinks It's Alliances – The EU’s New Partnership Playbook

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00:00:13: International Reports, around the world with The Conrad Adonale Foundation.

00:00:35: crazy.

00:00:36: I don't think anybody saw this coming, well here we are in what seems like a completely different

00:00:42: timeline.".

00:00:43: In mid-September at her annual State of the Union address European Commission President Ursula van der Leyen proposed that Canada should become EU's first ever associate member

00:01:03: and build global coalitions for our resilience, and democracies.

00:01:10: And here too only Europe with its size and power can take the

00:01:16: lead.".

00:01:17: This is why I have invited Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada.

00:01:37: Mark your present year as a symbol of enduring friendship between our people.

00:01:44: Our cultural historical and personal links run deep in the fabric of our societies.

00:01:50: And thanks to CETA, our trade and goods has grown by seventy-five percent... ...in less than a decade!

00:01:56: This shows the power of our trade agreements, btw.

00:02:00: We see the world with the same eyes from AI to climate change From the Arctic to geopolitics….

00:02:08: …and we have stood together on Ukraine On defence On raw materials & supply chains.

00:02:17: But above all dear Mark, Europe and Canada believe in democracy.

00:02:24: Wunderland's invitation for Canada to become an associate member is a pragmatic reaction to the rapidly increasing geopolitical pressures that the EU is now facing whether it's from Russian aggression in the East open hostility from United States on the West economic challenges from China and an ongoing war in the Persian Gulf.

00:02:46: that's constraining energy supplies.

00:02:49: All of this is forcing the European Union to re-evaluate its policies, partnerships with outside world.

00:02:55: so it's perfect timing there.

00:02:57: a fascinating article on September edition international reports director of the Conrad Adenauer Foundation's multinational development policy dialogue in Brussels and Sven Nikolaj, program manager for democracy and governance also in the multinational Development Policy Dialogue in Brussels.

00:03:22: Olaf, Sven welcome to international reports!

00:03:26: Happy to be here.

00:03:27: thank you Eric for the invitation.

00:03:29: great to have you both.

00:03:30: before we get into your article Olaf I'd like To the decision by European Union to invite Canada as an associate member still proposed.

00:03:42: it hasn't passed yet but is.

00:03:44: An indication of where we are today in world.

00:03:46: what does that say about new outlook on international partnerships,

00:03:52: well for me it shows clearly you trying to explore not only old instruments that used to stretch from partnerships worldwide, but also look for new instruments.

00:04:03: Really new pathways because Also For example this associate membership there were some big question marks in Brussels But also member states.

00:04:11: what does that mean exactly?

00:04:13: Is it the European economic area or is something less something more access to a single market?

00:04:19: and I think particularly That This is a political signal A strong political signal and it has to be perceived like how then you go for the nitty-gritty what means exactly?

00:04:29: but that's a powerful political signal.

00:04:31: And if shows that u is trying to think beyond usual instruments and beyond usually approaches

00:04:39: implementing them

00:04:41: we'll see this works out about at least.

00:04:43: he said there was urgency in the willingness thing about new pathways.

00:04:48: So Sven, this is again perfect timing for the article we heard from Olaf about the urgency of new pathways and new partnerships.

00:04:57: You're describing an article that there's a fundamental transition in EU partnership policy.

00:05:01: let start their and expand on that.

00:05:04: since twenty-twenty four since this new funder line to commission we see it knew very pragmatic approach to its partnership policies and to it's relationship with partners outside of the European Union.

00:05:18: This shift mostly stems from geopolitical turbulence that we see outside the EU.

00:05:25: Mostly, of course war for question against Ukraine or full scale war on Ukraine one must say in perception of the European Union within this new world era, one could say.

00:05:43: Additionally also the turbulences in the Middle East have added up to this.

00:05:49: so we see that this geopolitical competition has now also arrived in Brussels which leads To the EU rethinking its whole partnership policy, it's orientation of the partnership policy.

00:06:03: We already know since twenty sixteen that we have this approach off to principled pragmatism so pragmatist but nevertheless value guided by.

00:06:13: now.

00:06:13: really see that this pragmatis in part of principle.

00:06:17: pragmat is comes more interaction.

00:06:19: Olaf Sven talked about the Russian aggression and Ukraine obviously events at the Middle East But I want to get your take on what effect China has had... ...on this decision, re-evaluate partnerships.

00:06:33: And of course the big factor out there that's changed everything in the past two years is US President Donald Trump and a much more aggressive U.S foreign policy.. ..and open hostility that United States conferred upon Europe.

00:06:47: How do those factors play into some of the decisions making on new partnerships?

00:06:51: They certainly play a role!

00:06:52: And I mean Sven correctly outlined already few reasons But China's increasing assertive behavior is definitely one.

00:07:00: We see also when we have for example the china summit last year, so quite clearly that you know you came with its demands but their response was relatively diplomatic?

00:07:14: But also quiet icy when it comes to substance.

00:07:17: so we see clearly the dependence on the one hand and then we have but also the willingness increase in winners of China to use these dependencies.

00:07:27: So this is certainly a factor that has been alarming for number of member states, but particularly also in Brussels.

00:07:33: there are other factors as well.

00:07:35: I mean before coming to the US There was also the perception among other partners That they have several options.

00:07:43: The EU Is not necessarily always the preferred ones But we need sometimes to adapt our policies In order be more attractive.

00:07:50: And you mentioned Trump.

00:07:53: You mentioned the

00:07:54: U.S.,

00:07:55: I mean, of course we have transatlantic bond and there are issues where the cooperation continues but certainly this has accelerated this whole process.

00:08:09: The stance that the Trump administration had certainly accelerated and increased the urgency to diversify their partnerships.

00:08:17: But one point i want to highlight.

00:08:19: when the EU includes for example we have now on Canada, the EU-Canada relationship.

00:08:26: When the EU increases or strengthens these partnerships it's not to antagonize US.

00:08:32: It simply address The fact that in a more complex world you need sometimes more flexible alliances.

00:08:41: You need new formats of cooperation to address certain problems And U.S has been asking the EU To get its business together and be self reliant as well to deal with its own problems.

00:08:54: So I think strengthening these partnerships, particularly if like-minded very like my partners like Canada or Japan of Korea Australia New Zealand this is clearly the way to go.

00:09:05: that's not how Donald Trump saw and he described The associate member proposal as a potentially hostile act to the United States.

00:09:13: so again there's A big divergence between other.

00:09:16: US in Europe are seeing These things.

00:09:18: Sven Olaf talked about the competition that Europe now faces in its partnerships.

00:09:24: It's not the only one out there and many.

00:09:26: for much of the post-Cold War era, The US and Europe had this development space to themselves when they are engaging Africa Asia Latin America.

00:09:34: but Now There is a lot Of new players Not just the Chinese.

00:09:38: The Turks Are Out There.

00:09:40: The Emirates Are Out.

00:09:41: They're The Japanese The Koreans.

00:09:43: There's a lot of competition in the development space.

00:09:46: One of the answers that Europe came up with back in twenty-twenty one was Global Gateway, A big monstrous three hundred billion euro initiative in Ursula van der Leyen language to compete With The Belt and Road.

00:09:58: when she announced it let's talk about global gateway And how It is important To this transition for new partnerships.

00:10:04: tell us little bit About the change In thinking That Development Assistance Is out and much more transactional initiatives are in.

00:10:12: Tell us about the global gateway, how this fits into what you're writing?

00:10:17: Yes absolutely.

00:10:18: I think Global Gateway is an initiative that European Commission launched in twenty-twenty one fits perfectly initially to leverage or mobilize three hundred billion euros until twenty seven for investments.

00:10:31: However, the European Commission actually announced that this has already been surpassed and it's aiming now for four hundred billion euros.

00:10:40: What we see there is that The European Union went a little bit away from classic approach of development policy which as main target of poverty reduction goes more in strategic area investments mostly in digital infrastructure energy and transport but also health, education and other resources.

00:11:02: The global gateway initiative there by now is the main tool of EU's partnership policy especially with regards to development policies.

00:11:11: however one must say that the EU remains one of the biggest donors for humanitarian aid.

00:11:19: Is this a competition between China and the Belt and Road?

00:11:23: Because it was presented China's not really in doing much on the Belt and Road when it comes to state-backed financing, but does Brussels continue to see this as a challenge for China?

00:11:34: I think that is question which you will get very different answers.

00:11:39: Obviously we know there was an approach at the beginning or also debate around it.

00:11:46: however i think comparison might be not fear.

00:11:51: Regarding to the Belt and Road Initiative, there was already started in two thousand thirteen.

00:11:55: that has mobilized over one trillion investments.

00:11:58: So we see that this scale but also at a time when compared to global gateways is set out it's not really yet to be compared And both initiatives really differ fundamentally like the belt and road initiative as you know mostly relies on loans which leads towards what people often describe debt trap for recipient countries, whereby Global Gateway tries to follow a very different approach and also tries place in there.

00:12:35: And when we talk about China and global gateway, I must also say that the EU has changed its approach to procurement policies because we saw on the past even Chinese companies have won procurements under a Global Gateway meaning that Chinese firms have profited from EU's tax payers money.

00:12:55: this is something will now change after this has come public seat.

00:13:00: Well maybe to wait for my side if i may Global Gateway had a bit of a bumpy start because I think there were also different expectations attached to it.

00:13:09: There was not a lot of new money earmarked for it, so sometimes it would be rebranding and the inclusion of the pilot sector took its time but you see that there is a genuine interest in this instrument among partner countries.

00:13:24: So what do we have here at the global gateway forum which has taken place now twice?

00:13:29: If i'm not mistaken.

00:13:30: You're usually around... between twelve and fifteen heads of state in government, the law of ministers that came from third countries.

00:13:38: So that shows a genuine interest.

00:13:41: however what we also perceive when we talk with delegations who are coming to bring it from different countries or listen our offices into respective country is many countries do not like could be put on position to choose between the global gateway and bri.

00:13:58: it's basically to say you know bri is an initiative that we do with the chinese.

00:14:03: where are you coming from?

00:14:04: global gateway but.

00:14:05: Do not expect for global gateway will give up our close ties of china.

00:14:10: this i think important lesson u decision makers need to be aware,

00:14:16: yeah olaf thats a very important point.

00:14:17: they brought out more countries are demanding partnership equals And they don't want this traditionally paternalistic relationship that many have had with Europe dating back centuries of course.

00:14:29: and so what does that mean in practice?

00:14:32: Have you seen European countries adapt to these new realities where developing countries, in particular are demanding more because they have more options now.

00:14:42: I think we've seen exactly at least rhetorically the EU has tried to adapt to exactly these demands.

00:14:49: when you listen also to the funder line.

00:14:51: but Do you use a CK la the commissioner that is responsible for the international partnerships of EU and global gateway?

00:14:59: Is it off course, this is something that Global Gate which is something to be very demand-ridden.

00:15:06: It should correspond to national priorities.

00:15:09: in practice The picture has been a bit more mixed And there have been some complaints where partner countries I've said well You know This is interesting but doesn't hundred percent complement What other players are doing here, what we want to do.

00:15:26: So I think this is a bit of work in progress but at least you see an attempt from the EU side To respond more to the demands and towards actually requested from the partner

00:15:38: parties.

00:15:39: Sven let's turn our attention to critical minerals because that Is a key topic for concern For a lot of countries particularly in G seven That have over reliance on China for processed minerals.

00:15:51: This is central to the partnership agenda that you talk about.

00:15:56: Tell us about the role that critical minerals place in all this and if, The fact is that European countries have not built up the processing capacity they're still going to be reliant on China.

00:16:08: how do these new partnerships change them?

00:16:10: We had in May twenty-twenty four this critical raw materials acted brought forward by the European Union, which aims to secure Europe's supply chains of like these thirty for critical strategic raw materials whereby they use approaches mostly diversify.

00:16:29: It's sources of supply and they're the main tool that EU has used so far.

00:16:33: where this memorandum understanding with partner countries, which the US managed to sign sixteen of them.

00:16:40: However question stays what comes out?

00:16:44: because the memorandums is always just a beginning.

00:16:48: in end-of-the day it's a question implementation also how long does implementation needs?

00:16:53: Because we know geoeconomic situation with China might not get easier over the next times, but that's why also part of global gateway is to build up this processing and refining capabilities in capacities.

00:17:10: In their countries where these critical raw materials are produced so that European Union at end-of-the-days able purchase already processed critical raw material from there.

00:17:24: Additionally, and this is also something that Ursula von der Leyen mentioned at your state of the union speech.

00:17:29: That we listened to in a very beginning is that you tries to go bigger in this stockpiling efforts so that European Union starts to build up reserve off these critical raw materials.

00:17:42: but Olaf there's fundamental contradiction here because Ursula van der land talked about the importance values and democracy But Sven talks about the pragmatism driving this critical minerals discussion and other resources.

00:17:57: Many of these resources come from countries that do not share the democratic ideals that Ursula von der Leyen talked about, in which European Union holds so important.

00:18:07: So how do you reconcile those contradictions forming partnerships with non-democratic countries or less than democratic countries when democracy in particular is such an important value for European Union diplomacy.

00:18:21: I think it's a very important dilemma, and the answer of EU will have to do one thing without completely neglecting other.

00:18:35: at end of day you need deal with country that are there.

00:18:39: we cannot make ourselves new ones.

00:18:41: Therefore, I think there is a certain push for pragmatism.

00:18:46: that being said... ...I think what IS important when we pursue these projects to at least still not completely give up the certain standards if you want to see implemented.

00:18:57: so it doesn't also backfire!

00:18:59: I mean imagine you have big raw materials project with lot of violations of environmental standards.

00:19:05: humanized population on-the-ground was completely upset and they may then identify not only their government as a culprit, but also the EU.

00:19:15: So I think we need to be pragmatic in many ways because we have to be aware that our relative weight on global scale has been shrinking and that we... We need to engage with countries who do not necessarily share our values And you've seen a lot of summits in the past years much more contact, much more engagement with the Gulf, trend printing talks about Central Asia the new Syrian government, a lot of interactions because there are common interests and this is something that will link us.

00:19:47: I think what's important however it also to distinguish between those autocracies where you would say well they had different governments system but their goal was not destroy the EU or actively roll back democracy here on the European continent.

00:20:05: why do have other autocracy such as the classic example?

00:20:10: I think applies for other big states as well, who are trying to weaken the EU proactively.

00:20:18: And we can also democracy in the EU and Europe integration project as such.

00:20:24: This is something different.

00:20:26: so i think that not every autocracy has the same look.

00:20:30: of course when we engage in cooperation should still pay attention directly or indirectly contributes to any repressive apparatus one way of the other.

00:20:44: I think this is something that you should still be aware, but yes EU given that we live in will have to walk a very tightrope and difficult balance between still being values based on what also to engage.

00:20:58: Like to close our conversation on fundamental contradiction within the EU that you raise an article about sometimes conflicting agendas the European Union has with its member states, and now even within Member States there's a lot of tension over which direction national foreign policy should go.

00:21:17: And then of course continental foreign policies.

00:21:20: so when we look forward to this new era of partnerships that Ursula van der Leyen talks about you write in the article talk us these contradictions and pressures at pull the policies different directions.

00:21:33: sometimes You know the Nordic countries and southern country don't see world in same way, Franco-Germans have a different view on things.

00:21:42: And then of course trying to consolidate all that into one central idea can be very difficult.

00:21:48: I'd like both of you to reflect on it.

00:21:50: to close our discussion Sven we'll start with you.

00:21:53: Olaf will give your last word today.

00:21:55: I think this is one of the major challenges ahead after European Union, but it has always been if we are very frank.

00:22:04: We see that in different policy fields we have different also majority necessities within the EUP union.

00:22:10: so every talk about trade policies for example That's an exclusive competence off to you pinion.

00:22:15: So there we only need a qualified majority among some member states.

00:22:24: Actually, this is what we saw with the Mercosur trade agreement.

00:22:27: For example where France was against and nevertheless at least a trade part was provisionally applied already in DCR if you talk about development policy.

00:22:38: there We have apparel competence so they are also that You can act quite a lot by itself.

00:22:43: But if we then talked about for example security policy defense policy There we have unanimity.

00:22:50: that is necessary.

00:22:51: And there, of course exactly what you mentioned.

00:22:54: it's one the major problems.

00:22:55: because for example member states are perceiving biggest threats coming from east because they're bordering Ukraine.

00:23:03: other States see more challenges in the Middle East on North Africa which mostly due to geographical positioning.

00:23:12: But this is what is tried here in the European Union a lot to find their common grounds, to find the consensus.

00:23:20: Yeah maybe two complementive also few points... This usually takes time.

00:23:24: I mean if you had asked me fifteen years ago will we have common Russia sanctioned regimes against Russia at they attack Ukraine or how would we address it?

00:23:33: No way very difficult and so on.

00:23:36: but

00:23:37: i mean You can criticize a lot about the EU's response on the Ukraine crisis, but it is much more united in that topic than many people expected five years ago.

00:23:46: So this takes time... But of course sometimes too much time and time that you don't necessarily have.

00:23:52: so I think its quite urgent to build a more consensual position.

00:23:56: how do deal with China also one thats more realistic where we dont project only our desires may change course or maybe more considerate because it is unlikely to be.

00:24:10: on the other hand i think this something that really affects also let's say how you see not only international relations but also what place of how europe should conduct its own quest to still matter also in world, In the questions about, for example access of third countries to EU markets when it comes to defense also procurement and these kind of issues.

00:24:38: Where you see can we be sovereign in a completely autonomous or OTARK?

00:24:46: Or Can We Be It With A Web Of Strong Partnerships?

00:24:49: And There I Think You Will Still Find Slightly Different Answers.

00:24:52: Each Capital Of The EU And This Usually Takes Time.

00:24:57: Usually it moves towards a more consensual position, but of course the urgency is quite high now to accelerate this process.

00:25:05: Olaf.

00:25:05: indeed I think much Of what we talk about today would have been unbelievable fifteen years ago and so It's hard to imagine What?

00:25:13: We're going to be talking about fifteen years from Now given how quickly things are changing.

00:25:18: But one way To get look at what's happening right now Is to check out the September edition of international reports And to see this fascinating article, the EU's Partnership Policy and Transition Adapting To A Geopolitically Turbulent World.

00:26:13: Thank you, Eric.