South Africa between Polarisation and Populism

00:00:03: International

00:00:04: Reports, around the world with

00:00:06: The Conrad Adonale Foundation.

00:00:11: Hello and welcome to another edition of international reports.

00:00:15: I'm Eric Olander.

00:00:16: Today we're going focus on rapidly changing political dynamics taking place in many African countries.

00:00:22: This is part an ongoing series that we've been doing on this show That explores some big political shifts taking place In different regions all over Like Chile, Argentina and Bolivia.

00:00:38: We heard from experts there that what's happened isn't like the political movements we've seen before.

00:00:43: A lot of voters in these countries simply don't identify anymore as Marxists or capitalists The way their parents did in the seventies, eighties all the way up into the early nineties.

00:00:54: Today a lot this energy is coming from young people demanding change From their governments.

00:01:00: They want less corruption More infrastructure And better jobs.

00:01:04: If left-leaning politicians can't do it, then they'll bring in right leaning governments.

00:01:08: And if they don't deliver them will find someone

00:01:10: else.".

00:01:11: For today's discussion we're going to find out something similar is happening in many African countries specifically South Africa where voters revolted against the once indomitable African National Congress.

00:01:23: The ANC was a dominant political party for better part of thirty years since the end of apartheid in nineteen ninety-four all the way up until twenty twenty four when voters said they had had enough a single party rule.

00:01:36: we've now have two years of a centrist government to national unity also known as the gnu and will find out how that's going and just is.

00:01:44: we looked at performance center right parties.

00:01:47: other regions around the world will see how their fairing in african countries as well.

00:01:52: For more on this, I'm thrilled to be joined by two of the Conrad Attenauer Foundation's leading experts.

00:01:58: Holga Dix is head of the regional program Political Dialogue in Sub-Saharan Africa and author a fascinating article international reports.

00:02:06: how can center right parties hold their ground in Africa?

00:02:10: A look at The Democracy Union Of Africa.

00:02:13: And also thrilled to join by Gregor Jekke Head of the Konrad Atdenauer Foundation South African Office And also, author of a piece on South Africa between polarization and populism.

00:02:24: South Africa's fragile political center.

00:02:27: both Gregor and Holger join me today from the Conrad Attenauer Foundation office in Cape Town.

00:02:32: A very good morning to you all and welcome to International Reports.

00:02:36: Good Morning Eric!

00:02:37: Gregor let us start with you about what is happening more broadly across.

00:02:46: South Africa has moved from effectively what was single-party rule to now a coalition government, but yet populism and identity are also fragmenting the political landscape much as it's happening in other places.

00:02:59: Maybe you can just give us an overview of this situation in south africa.

00:03:03: whether you think that we're seeing over the past two years since the GNU came into power is something temporary or

00:03:13: Well, thank you Eric.

00:03:14: As you said in your short introduction the year twenty-twenty four was a turning point that changed South Africa's political landscape.

00:03:24: so the election abroad to enter decades long outright majority of the African National Congress The ANC the former liberation movement and forced that party To form a broad coalition the so-called government of national unity, which is a complex ten party multi coalition where and this important to emphasize that A&C still strongest partner with about forty percent.

00:03:56: So in these parties within this coalition there are significant programmatic and also ideological differences between the coalition for example economic and foreign policy.

00:04:08: But that election of two thousand and twenty four brought also a kind off fragmented party system.

00:04:18: The national parliament now includes eighteen political parties, And some are very small yeah?

00:04:26: That made South Africa coalition country with the outright majority before the last election.

00:04:35: that was never the discussion of coalition building, right?

00:04:38: So when I'm talking about a fragmented party system.

00:04:42: I would like to underline the fact that thirteen parties in parliament have less than ten seats and overall The National Parliament has four hundred seats so we had for fragmented Party System but at this same time it also led populism and polarization, I think later on Eric we will talk about parties like the economic freedom fighters.

00:05:06: Like Jacob Zuma's MK party.

00:05:10: Parties that mobilized their voters through a populist identity-based rhetoric which is deepening divisions in society.

00:05:19: And as we know, South Africa is already one of the most unequal societies.

00:05:24: A very divided society.

00:05:26: and this rise or populism and polarization are in a way strengthening that division.

00:05:32: Yeah how much?

00:05:33: Of The failure of the ANC to hold on to power again It's still the dominant party in the coalition But it's no longer effectively the ruling Party of South Africa the way it was for thirty years.

00:05:45: How much of that, again is driven by a new younger generation?

00:05:49: That didn't grow up with the struggles.

00:05:50: Of The ANC.

00:05:51: and Again like what we're seeing in Chile And other parts to the world that your colleagues In say South America are seeing that young people Are either being shaped by identity or populism Or demanding better accountability and Better governance from parties Like the ANC.

00:06:06: What do you think Is driving the change?

00:06:09: First of all, also the South African society is a very young society.

00:06:14: We know that from other african countries.

00:06:17: in south africa approximately half of the south africans population are under twenty five years old and after the apartheid called the so-called born frees they do not show any loyalty to the former liberation movement or ANC anymore right?

00:06:36: They want The politics deliver jobs, economic growth gives opportunity for their families.

00:06:44: This younger generation.

00:06:45: they just want to have a future perspective.

00:06:48: and then when we look at the ANC you can say that South African voters especially young voters appear increasingly fed up with the ANCs corruption, nepotism and mismanagement.

00:07:05: You have to know that it defines itself less than a party, then more like a mass movement.

00:07:11: But at the end you now... ...you have to deliver and if you do not deliver- If you fail also connected to bad governance Then of course the younger population gets frustrated.

00:07:24: They are voting for different parties but in South Africa they decide Not to vote.

00:07:30: So you have strong alienation from political system.

00:07:35: Party in South Africa is the party of non-voters, especially the young generation.

00:07:40: They feel that the ANC failed to translate you can say the political transformation into a sustainable economic development That provides them with a good future.

00:07:55: Okay Holger your article examines growing pressure on democratic and center right political parties across Africa that are facing really this fascinating mix of authoritarianism, weakening support from Western governments and also growing influence on other powers like Turkey China the Gulf States even Russia to some extent.

00:08:17: How much of what Gregor is talking about that's playing out in South Africa especially with this young generation that increasingly frustrated with politics?

00:08:27: Is also what you're seeing elsewhere across the continent.

00:08:31: So what we see, the argument Henry and I are doing in our article is that there's kind of a decline of democracy.

00:08:40: In general in Africa which means you have democratic countries turning into more authoritarian states where democracy is under pressure.

00:08:52: We see that in countries like Cote d'Ivoire And then Benin who once were seen as models for democracy.

00:09:00: These democracies, they are functioning.

00:09:02: They're producing results.

00:09:04: but even in these countries there is a kind of decline.

00:09:07: We see not that much movement In countries That never really were democracies Where democrats always Were under pressure.

00:09:15: Example like in Mozambique Tanzania and Uganda.

00:09:19: And then unfortunately we See countries that Are turning into military systems Sahel Countries Bali Bukina Faso Niger.

00:09:28: So There's an overall I would say I would say overall democracy is under stress.

00:09:33: And that's partly true to the fact, and my point of view in some countries democracy was never really implemented or rooted.

00:09:43: So if you remind me when i started my work for Konrad Adenau Foundation in the nineties there were waves of democracy in these countries initiated from outside.

00:09:55: so the international world said you know if your not a democracy will not work with you, will not support.

00:10:01: and that encouraged democracy movements.

00:10:04: And that convinced leaders to change into democracy.

00:10:07: but it doesn't mean this democracy really was rooted in.

00:10:11: democratic values have to be accepted.

00:10:13: functioning democracies now.

00:10:15: Then Henry and I were working very much on the question of political parties like what Gregor explained at his article.

00:10:23: When you live in Africa, politicians are really not very well connected to the people.

00:10:30: In French they always call them political class which is separated from society.

00:10:38: and then if that's the case parties don't get support.

00:10:41: they need South-Africa.

00:10:43: I think it's much more advanced when it comes to democracy and political parties being based on programs.

00:10:50: But in many other countries, you don't see the prochromatic ideas behind.

00:10:56: That is one thing that I think it's important.

00:10:59: and now... You mentioned a question of young people.

00:11:02: so we see countries like Kenya Madagascar where young people are no longer ready to get governed by someone who sometimes gives them an impression they're working on their own interests And these young people on either side aren't ready to go the long way, you need to enter a political party.

00:11:23: To grow from local level and then become maybe one day a member of parliament or even minister.

00:11:29: they want immediate results.

00:11:31: these young people in the streets like in Kenya see that can have good result.

00:11:37: so now feel how strong they are.

00:11:41: governments has react.

00:11:42: it is not bad thing but dangerous Because these demonstrations sometimes turn out to be violent, like in the case of Madagascar might even have a result that the militaries are taking over.

00:11:55: So we're having very interesting dynamic situation right now in Sub-Sahara Africa when it comes to democracy which is not bad thing.

00:12:03: I wouldn't say this is a bad thing but needs lead us into discussion where we rebuild democracy and support democrats in sub-saharan africa.

00:12:13: Yeah, and I guess it should be pointed out that a lot of what you've talked about is not unique to Africa where we're seeing the retrenchment of democracy even in United States some western countries as well.

00:12:24: so this isn't interesting phenomena.

00:12:26: there's worldwide.

00:12:27: how much of it Gregor like to get your take on this as well.

00:12:30: How much do they think has to with taxes?

00:12:34: One scholar told me, he said one of the reasons why you see these protests in places like Kenya is because people pay taxes there and have a higher expectation that their government is going to be delivering services for those money.

00:12:46: In countries like Nigeria where there's relatively low taxation on individuals You don't see those same kind of pressures.

00:12:53: So how much of it?

00:12:54: when we see across the continent The demand for accountability from their government depends on how much people have invested in it.

00:13:02: South Africa, Kenya they have taxation.

00:13:04: other countries don't.

00:13:06: First of all maybe Eric let me underline the fact that if you look on South Africa specifically it's different than many other countries on the continent.

00:13:16: South Africa is a stable democracy with free and equal elections, South Africa has more or less a free and independent media.

00:13:24: It has robust and stable civil society.

00:13:27: The rule of law is more-or-less respected.

00:13:30: South Africa had strong constitution.

00:13:33: I think that what we have to point out right at beginning when talking about the specific south african context But in same time the feeling of younger generation, alienation from political system that they feel have no future perspectives because there is a lack transparency accountability and all these things.

00:13:55: So I think thats what South African young population shares with rest of the younger generation of the continent, african continent.

00:14:05: And yes you can also look already on local level when there is a failure of the service of basic service deliveries like electricity, water.

00:14:17: How can you have trust in political institutions and politicians?

00:14:21: In political parties even on local level... You know at lowest levels government's politics are failing to deliver basic services such as electricity or water.

00:14:34: And I'm not talking about economic growth and job creation.

00:14:38: So it already begins at local level with a high degree of frustration among the young

00:14:43: population.".

00:15:02: I'm living in Joburg, Johannesburg and what i hear from people there is it's not that they are not ready to pay taxes but then want to see services.

00:15:14: So doesn't make sense if you do have water or electricity but don't get electricity.

00:15:21: That is one of the key issues for South Africa.

00:15:26: In principle I would say that people are ready to contribute if there is a development.

00:15:33: One of the key problems we are observing in, let's say less developed countries... ...is that this product is very much concentrated on big cities.

00:15:45: and as soon you leave these big cities to come to countryside You still see women carrying water with no electricity.

00:15:53: They have to burn trees for cooking And that is maybe one of the key issues many countries have to deal with.

00:16:03: It's to decentralize development and make sure more than only the elite in big cities takes advantage or gets a better life through this development, which has huge consequences on democracies as well.

00:16:19: You know it's extremely complicated when you're talking about poor people who don't access water that you tell him, I'm now working on a strategy and in ten years things will be better.

00:16:32: They are asking for immediate solutions which then creates the danger of false promises and corruption.

00:16:42: so we need growth And this growth has to result in better living conditions For majority population.

00:16:53: Maybe try it at this point.

00:16:55: We as Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, we promote democracy but in the end what I always say is that democracy also has to deliver and bring a positive change for people.

00:17:07: if not there's of course risk of populist forces gaining more support.

00:17:15: Let me give you one example.

00:17:17: We are doing voter education in townships.

00:17:21: Same what my colleague Holger just said.

00:17:24: It's very hard to convince ordinary South Africans, To go the ballot box and take part in an election when they are sitting at home with no water or electricity have no job perspectives They could not send their kids to good schools.

00:17:38: And this is where people lose trust in democracy

00:17:42: And that's understandable, right?

00:17:44: I mean if you're not getting any of those basic services and the quality-of life your children is worse than yours.

00:17:51: No wonder people are vulnerable to maybe more authoritarian or populist ideas?

00:17:57: If thats'the case then let us look ahead into future.

00:18:00: what direction do we see South Africa going in?

00:18:08: First of all, I think it's important to say that the government of national unity and as i said before.

00:18:14: It is a complex ten-party government with a lot of struggles and a programmatic ideological differences within the coalition but... And thats very important!

00:18:26: The best government This country can have now at this time.

00:18:32: First of all, we saw to what the decades-long ANC outright majority led.

00:18:37: and now this government of national unity... The populist left wing radical forces like economic freedom fighters or Jacob Zuma's party in Conte Vizesque MK Party are not part of the Government of National Unity And that is very important and a very important aspect, because with populist left-wing radical forces who want only state intervention.

00:19:04: Who are on distribution policies?

00:19:06: Who wants nationalization expropriation without compensation... ...and all these policies will not lead to economic growth or more job opportunities.

00:19:19: So in perspective I think that the GNU has to deliver on important aspects, but it's also the best option South Africa has at this moment because all other alternative options are not better.

00:19:32: And then of course we have to see next election on national and provincial level will be in year.

00:19:40: We have within the ANC a succession debate because President Ramaphosa will not stand as party chairman from December, three thousand twenty seven onwards.

00:19:51: So what happenings with in the A&C?

00:19:54: will have an effect on the stability of the government and also, in future South Africa.

00:20:02: Even though ANC is in decline... In my opinion it'll lose more votes because for many reasons not possible this party renews itself in a proper way.

00:20:15: but at same time we need to know that the second largest party in south africa, economic liberal democratic alliance.

00:20:23: They gained a twenty-one point eight percent in the last election.

00:20:27: So, In other words The ANC is still twice as strong As the democratic alliance.

00:20:34: so uh...the ANC will play an important role in the future But we have to see under which leadership?

00:20:41: Holger your article looks at some of the changing dynamics Of politics specifically how center right parties Can hold their ground.

00:20:49: when you look forward now and say the next six To twelve months or the near term Taking into account what Gregor's told us about, was going on in South Africa.

00:20:56: What do you see happening?

00:20:58: In terms of democracy and the various shifts with populism identity politics also playing a role.

00:21:04: I'm deeply convinced that all those narratives are created by anti-democrats saying that authoritarian states deliver better than democracies.

00:21:18: they will not work.

00:21:20: We now already see that the narrative in the Sahel states, where the militaries are saying they produce security and not working.

00:21:28: The narratives of countries like Rwanda which partly is shared by many western people as well... They're so strong.

00:21:36: the narratives say that Rwandha is a successful economic country.

00:21:42: I think we will all see it's not the case And Rwando isn't producing reconciliation.

00:21:48: We will see that once Kagami is out of office, so I think we'll all see these narratives are not the reality and then again create another wave of democracy –I'm pretty sure it's going to happen.

00:22:04: but this new way for democracy would only help us reduce better results if can convince politicians to do their job.

00:22:14: They have to work in the interests of the population, we need political competition.

00:22:21: South Africa is a very good example for the fact that as soon there was political competition now There are better results so there's more development.

00:22:31: Competition is key and not too pessimistic when it comes to democracy But we have to work on it, and that's a problem that Democrats get less support now.

00:22:44: From international organizations.

00:22:45: the US stepped out.

00:22:47: The German political foundations are now the biggest player in this field of promoting democracy.

00:22:52: but I think We have to concentrate not give up To be positive And i'm pretty sure That were coming into situation where will see new wave of democracy which then Will created by Africans too much influence by outsiders.

00:23:20: that's featured in international reports.

00:23:22: How can center-right parties hold their ground?

00:23:25: In Africa, a look at the Democracy Union of Africa.

00:23:29: and Gregor Yacke is head of Conrad Adenauer Foundation South Africa office an author on another piece in International Reports, South Africa between polarization and populism.

00:23:39: South Africa's fragile political centre.

00:23:41: I highly encourage you all to take a. Gregor Holger, thank you so much for taking the time to join us today on International Reports.

00:23:52: Thanks, Eric!

00:23:53: And that'll do it.

00:23:54: another edition of international reports make sure.